Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • Sweden
  • Netherlands
  • Ireland
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Luxembourg
  • Switzerland
  • Austria

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $53,081$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(5.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,945.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(52,945.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,656$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(718 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,437.8}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,437.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,783$ on 2020-05-10

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $224,350$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,970.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(217,970.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,621$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,579.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(25,579.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,563$ on 2020-05-10

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $219,070$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214,806.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(214,806.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,560$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,887.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,887.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $83,324$ on 2020-05-10

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $220,449$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,302.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(231,302.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,930$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,183.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(32,183.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $187,517$ on 2020-05-10

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $177,094$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,305.1}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(177,305.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,383$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,805.9}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(25,805.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $94,384$ on 2020-05-10

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,322$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,748.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,748.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,225$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(205 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,395.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,395.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,126$ on 2020-05-10

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,826$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,999.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(42,999.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,459$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(553 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,439.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,439.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,218$ on 2020-05-10

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,996$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,450.4}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(23,450.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,458$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(65.1 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,555.0}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,555.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,428$ on 2020-05-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 98%
Luxembourg recovered 93%
Switzerland recovered 87%
Austria recovered 86%
Malta recovered 84%
Croatia recovered 74%
Germany recovered 73%
Andorra recovered 69%
North Macedonia recovered 58%
Denmark recovered 56%
Slovakia recovered 52%
Lithuania recovered 43%
Spain recovered 39%
Czechia recovered 38%
Italy recovered 23%
Serbia recovered 9%
Hungary recovered 7%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(405 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.58 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.3}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 22.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18$ on 2020-05-10

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,886$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(716 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,734.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,734.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $101$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(17.3 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 26.8)}}\) (asimptote \(98.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $199$ on 2020-05-10

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,305$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(5.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,485.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(29,485.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,833$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,823.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,823.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,872$ on 2020-05-10

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,871$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,242.2}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,242.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $618$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(84.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{617.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(617.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,262$ on 2020-05-10