Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $53,081$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(5.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,945.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(52,945.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,656$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(718 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,437.8}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,437.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,783$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $224,350$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,970.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(217,970.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,621$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,579.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(25,579.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $61,563$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $219,070$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214,806.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(214,806.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,560$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,887.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,887.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $83,324$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $220,449$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,302.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(231,302.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,930$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,183.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(32,183.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $187,517$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $177,094$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,305.1}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(177,305.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,383$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,805.9}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(25,805.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $94,384$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,322$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,748.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,748.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,225$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(205 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,395.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,395.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,126$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,826$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,999.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(42,999.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,459$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(553 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,439.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,439.5\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,218$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,996$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,450.4}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(23,450.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,458$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(65.1 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,555.0}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,555.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,428$ on 2020-05-10